World leaders gathering in Japan ahead of next week's G8 summit received
welcome news today with the publication of a new report from
PricewaterhouseCoopers claiming that cutting
global carbon emissions in half by 2050 is both technically feasible and
economically affordable, but only if politicians act quickly.
The
report,
which updates a similar study carried out in 2006, claims that cutting emissions
in half would cost around three per cent of GDP, a scenario the accountancy firm
insisted was affordable.
"This is broadly equivalent to sacrificing around a year of global GDP growth
between now and 2050," said John Hawksworth, head of macroeconomics at PwC and
the main author of the report. "In other words, reaching the same level of GDP
in 2051 as might otherwise have happened in 2050."
The report calculates that for the 50 per cent target to be met developed
economies will need to cut emissions by 80 per cent by 2050, while the seven
largest emerging economies - China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and
Turkey - will be allowed to continue to grow emissions up to 2020 at which point
they too will need to begin to reduce their emissions.
It adds that this can only be achieved through a major overhaul of global
climate change policy, centred on a huge increase in renewable energy capacity,
nuclear power and carbon capture systems (CCS), and greater efforts to tackle
deforestation.
The report said that higher oil and gas prices should help drive this energy
revolution, but warned that a global carbon price of over $40 a tonne, imposed
either through carbon trading or taxation mechanisms, would be required to
encourage the shift to cleaner energy sources.
"The key requirement now is for governments in all of the major economies to
demonstrate their joint political will to establish a well-functioning global
carbon market that puts a price on carbon emissions," said Richard Gledhill,
head of climate change services at PwC. "This will send the right economic
signals to private sector investors and consumers needed to deliver the new
technologies and changes in behaviour required to combat global warming."
PwC also warned that such policies needed to be embraced as a matter of
urgency, noting that higher than expected growth from China and India meant that
the business as usual scenario was now worst than envisaged two years ago and as
a result the estimated cost of tackling emissions had risen from between two and
three per cent of GDP to thee per cent.
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