A number of factors are conspiring to take us into a new era where businesses will expect to get far more use out of their hardware investments and technology will help to make this a reality.

Such factors include the slowing pace of processor improvements and improved hardware reliability. This means that even a fairly basic PC will provide more than the usual three years of productive life.

Microsoft has also been running out of gimmicks to make software upgrades seem desirable. The launch of Windows Vista and Office 2007 might be the final confirmation of this, considering the initial lack of interest in both.

Web services and the return of centralised processing and thin-clients do not follow the old upgrade patterns. Organisations can even resurrect those old computers in the cupboard and provide a more than acceptable computing experience.

Remote working is also encouraging the use of technologies, which in turn are spreading into the general office environment as IT and business managers see the benefits of them. As more people expect to be able to access their data on the road or from home, this will only become more widespread.

Environmental concerns are also forcing firms to take responsibility for the disposal of old kit and to limit unnecessary consumption.

Our supplies of fossil fuels are declining, which is likely to result in ever-increasing energy prices and incentives to reduce demand.

To survive in this new environment IT providers will have to adapt quickly and those that have relied on traditional PC-replacement cycles for a large chunk of their business will need to innovate or be left behind. The winners in this new environment will be those that provide value-added services as more of the IT budget will be spent here, rather than on replacing aging desktop equipment.

Of course, none of this is new ­ people were writing off the traditional IT department in 2000 with the advent of application service providers. They might finally be right, just seven years late.