Predictions about the technologies that enterprise buyers will invest in over the coming year usually end up like so many discarded betting slips strewn on the bookmaker’s floor. On the occasions when IT industry commentators do stick their neck out they usually plump for confirmed favourites that have very little chance of falling flat on their backsides or nose-diving into the turf.

Backing something like mobility and voice over IP (VoIP) for widespread adoption in 2006 is a bit like having a flutter on a winning thoroughbred, for example, or at least a horse that has finished runner-up in its last few races; not much of a risk considering its proven pedigree and past success.

In many cases, we see the same technology touted for greatness every year until the prediction eventually comes true. The runaway success of IP telephony has been widely heralded since at least 1995 by my reckoning, but its spread has actually been gradual and driven by genuine business needs that vary hugely between different organisations.

The same is likely to prove true for many of the products and services undergoing similar hype makeovers today. Talking up a technology is one of the IT industry’s favourite pastimes, and 2006 will see the usual efforts to convince wary buyers to invest in something they don’t actually need, or at least not yet.

Most of the predictions over the next 12 months will come from those with vested, usually financial, interests in seeing a particular technology, product or service succeed. The phrase “‘Lemonade is the world’s favourite fizzy drink’, says lemonade vendor,” sums the up the tactic pretty well.

The truth remains that new technologies and services are usually driven by equipment vendors, systems integrators and service providers looking for something that will coax buyers into parting with their cash.

Every new technology that comes along has genuine potential to improve business productivity and efficiency, though we sometimes have to look deep to find it. Despite the efforts of advertising, we shouldn’t expect to back a winner every time.