Hype has been a cornerstone of the IT industry for decades - ever since computer technology shook off some of the early soothsayers that believed few companies would need mainframes or that there was only a niche future for PCs.
Once the IT industry realised that technology was a growth market where fortunes could be made, we saw a full tilt from reserved predictions of future market size to absurd hype that someone, somewhere, couldn't wait to usurp.
Within the outlandish claims of course was reality, and we have seen some fantastic leaps whose momentum would have been slower without the hype. Through the 1990s though, it built into a crescendo, so at some point people had to say "enough".
Now we are in a market of new-found realism, where vendors have to work for their money. A lot of bad software and IT companies sprung up in the last decade, and the demise of both is good for the market, not lamentable.
Okay, so you could argue that with less competition there is less price pressure and less incentive to go the extra mile with customer service.
But people are wise to that, and enough competition exists to keep suppliers on their toes, making them work harder to keep you happy - and I mean happy, not satisfied. How often have you recommended a film or restaurant that was just satisfactory?
This realism hasn't extinguished the desire to innovate. Technologies are advancing, and the market is still split between the risk takers and those that watch and wait.
But to hear vendors talk more realistic time scales for adoption is refreshing. In the past that question became an exercise in applied marketeering mathematics.
You had to take the perceived honesty of the person speaking (based on a scale from wide-boy to old enough to only slightly exaggerate - a decent rule of thumb for judging was to observe the amount of gel in the hair), compare their view of market penetration against reality, and add that gap in number of years onto their claims for when a technology would become ubiquitous.
Now ask that question and companies are bending over backwards to present a conservative estimate, and even then with caveats.
If it goes on for too long I'll start wishing for the wild claims to reappear - but that's the great thing about the IT sector.
Hope springs eternal and we all know that ever so slowly, the hype will creep back and marketeers will start telling us our businesses will be dead in the water unless we jump on the latest bandwagon.





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